The Year of the Rooster

People who count their chickens before they are hatched act very wisely because chickens run about so absurdly that it is impossible to count them accurately.

Oscar Wilde

It is the Chinese Year of the Rooster and there is quite a lot to crow about. The US and European economies have continued their strong performance, reflected in sustained economic growth, robust employment and rising markets. The US Fed is likely to put paid to Pimco’s famous “New Normal” by raising interest rates at its March meeting today. Europe is not far behind and the ECB may change its posture before long. We have said for a while that the New Normal would be more like the Good Old Days. Eight years after the global financial crisis and 25 years since the beginning of globalization in earnest we have finally reached the end of deflation and are at the beginning of a sustained economic cycle that will last for several years. Political and economic events, not to mention market jitters, will offer opportunities from time to time but fundamentals will drive the performance of companies and of markets.

Read full article here